Updating population projections for France up to 2070: which assumptions should be used?

Source: 📒 Securing the first steps in business » — Report from the magazine Work & Safety, no. 88

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Number of pages: 9

The projections for 2070 require health prevention actors to think about prevention over the long term, for an older population, fewer young people, and more uncertainty due to migration.

1. Aging will significantly increase the proportion of those aged 65 and over, especially those aged 80 and over; therefore, prevention must aim at thepreservationof autonomy, the reduction of falls and chronic diseases from middle age, with local 'healthy aging' plans targeting areas where the population aged 75 and over will grow the most and systematically integrating caregivers.

2. Sustainably low fertility reduces the number of children without decreasing needs: it is necessary to strengthen the intensity and quality of actions aimed at young people (mental health, addictions, emotional and sexual life, nutrition, physical activity), in areas that sometimes have fewer students but greater social inequalities.

3. Aging increases pressure on pensions, health, and dependency; prevention becomes a macro lever to limit avoidable expenses, which justifies arguing for early investments with a return horizon of 15–30 years and incorporating prevention into multi-year financial plans.

4. Demographic dynamics will vary greatly by region; therefore, it is essential to systematically integrate regional/departmental projections into shared diagnostics (CPTS, CLS, CLSM…) and adapt priorities: loss of autonomy and isolation in very elderly areas, precariousness and mental health in declining or highly mobile areas.

5. The migratory balance will have a greater impact on population evolution, but remains very uncertain; prevention must anticipate the needs for linguistic and cultural mediation, propose targeted actions (vaccination, STIs, mental health, trauma) and remain flexible to absorb rapid variations in numbers.

6. The contraction of the working population and the increase in the needs of seniors are changing intergenerational balances; this reinforces the interest in health promotion approaches "throughout life", linking workplace health, chronic disease prevention, support for caregivers, and the integration of health into employment, housing, and mobility.

7. Finally, the high long-term uncertainty requires working with multiple demographic scenarios; prevention programmes must be designed to be modular, with a minimal base and options for intensification or redeployment depending on the actual changes in age demographics, as reflected locally by observatories and territorial diagnostics.

1. Analytical summary

Demographic context and projection issues

Insee updates its population projections for 2070 in 2026 against a backdrop marked by the exit from the Covid-19 crisis, an accelerated decline in fertility, and a natural balance that became negative in 2025 for the first time since the post-war period. The note reminds us that these projections are not forecasts but exploratory tools based on assumptions of fertility, mortality, and migration, combined using the 'components' method, which evolves a population by sex and age year after year. The challenge is to provide a coherent and shared framework for analysing possible futures of the population, particularly ageing, the size of generations of children, working-age individuals, and seniors, with direct consequences for pension, health, social protection systems, and support for loss of autonomy. The text emphasises the increasing uncertainty as the horizon moves further away and the need to think in scenarios, particularly for education, employment, and elderly care policies.

2026 Assumptions and Contributions to Public Action

The document details the assumptions made for the 2026 projections after consulting 220 experts: a downward revision but a continued increase in life expectancy, a target TFR reduced to 1.45 children per woman, an increase in the average age of motherhood to 33 years by 2050, and a central annual net migration balance raised to +150,000 people with a wide range of uncertainty. It explains the construction of a set of 27 scenarios combining central, high, and low values across the three components, as well as working scenarios (constant mortality, zero net migration) to illustrate the mechanisms. The text illustrates the 'snowball' effect of long-term fertility and migration gaps, showing how the same moderate gaps lead to differences of several million inhabitants or hundreds of thousands of children or very elderly people by 2070. It thus provides decision-makers with a framework for the reasoned use of projections: relevant horizons according to the audiences (children, working-age, elderly), order of magnitude of uncertainties, and the necessity to adapt the use of scenarios to the type of decision (opening of classes, organisation of healthcare provision, management of pensions).

2. Key points of the document

1. Reminder of the nature of the projections and the component method

   The report reaffirms that population projections are not a 'forecast' but conditional simulations, allowing us to observe what the population would become if demographic behaviours evolved according to certain assumptions. It describes the component method: starting from the initial population by sex and age, Insee applies fertility rates, mortality ratios, and a migratory balance broken down by age and sex to evolve the age pyramid year after year. This methodological presentation allows stakeholders to assess the robustness of the results and understand why certain sub-groups (children, those aged 75 and over) are more sensitive to the assumptions than the total population.

2. Specific difficulties for each demographic component

   The text details the dynamics of mortality (increased life expectancy but a slowdown in gains), significant uncertainties regarding fertility (the role of economic conditions, social norms, and the postponement of births), and the particularly unpredictable nature of migration (economic, ecological, political, and geopolitical factors). It emphasises the distinction between structural and cyclical phenomena, for example for the ICF, whose variations can reflect temporary effects as seen in 1993–1994 or in 2021. For professionals, this serves as a reminder that projections should be used with caution when anticipating the demand for services across certain age groups.

3. Construction of a range of scenarios and horizon 2070

   The report explains that Insee retains three values (central, low, high) for each component, generating 27 scenarios, supplemented by pedagogical working scenarios (constant mortality, zero net migration). It notes that the projection horizon has been gradually extended to 2070, which increases uncertainty but responds to the awareness of ageing and its consequences on social protection. The text shows that up to 10–15 years, the projections are relatively close to the observed data, but for longer horizons, the discrepancies in fertility and migration accumulate and amplify the differences in trajectories.

4. Concrete illustration of sensitivity to assumptions (cases 2035 and 2070)

   By comparing, for the 2021 projections, a low fertility scenario and a low life expectancy scenario, the document quantifies the discrepancies: in 2035, the total population gap remains limited (at most –1%), but the differences are significant for children under 10 years old or those aged 75 and over. In 2070, these gaps become more substantial: from –3% to –6% on the total population compared to the central scenario, –18% for children under 10 years old in the low fertility scenario, –15% for those aged 75 and over in the low life expectancy scenario. These orders of magnitude are directly usable to test the robustness of a local policy against demographic uncertainties.

5. Assumptions retained for the 2026 projections (fertility, mortality, migration)

   The core of the report is the presentation of the chosen assumptions after consultation with experts: a continuation of the increase in life expectancy but with more modest gains than in the past, leading to a life expectancy in 2070 of 89.5 years for women and 86.7 years for men, with a range of +/- 3 years. The target TFR is set at 1.45 children per woman with a range of +/- 0.25, rapid convergence (2028 for the central scenario, 2030 for the variants), and a continued increase in the average age of motherhood to 33 years by 2050. The central net migration balance is raised to +150,000 people per year, with a range of +/- 80,000, to reflect the levels observed recently and the extent of uncertainty. These assumptions will be implemented in the projections to be published in June 2026.

3. Action points for local stakeholders

1. Use projections according to the relevant horizon for each decision

   For short-term decisions (opening/closing classes, planning childcare arrangements, organising paediatric care provision), it is recommended to use the results of projections over a horizon of 10–15 years, where the gap with observed data remains statistically limited and where uncertainty mainly concerns migration. Local authorities, ARS, and rectorates can thus rely more on the central scenarios and document sensitivity to high and low net migration scenarios, rather than to extreme variants of fertility or mortality.

2. Test local policies across multiple scenarios of fertility and ageing

   For long-term policies (structuring of the medico-social offer, programming of nursing homes, anticipating loss of autonomy, planning of human resources in health), stakeholders should analyse the sustainability of their plans under several scenarios (low fertility, low life expectancy, high/low net migration). The orders of magnitude of the discrepancies proposed by Insee for the horizons of 2035 and 2070 can serve as a basis for constructing local stress tests: for example, sizing a robust dependency care offer to a 15% decrease in those aged 75 and over compared to the central scenario or an equivalent increase in a scenario of higher longevity.

3. Adapt communication and pedagogy around projections

   Public health, prevention, and medico-social structures can rely on the explanations in the report to develop educational materials clarifying that projections are not forecasts but conditional scenarios, in order to avoid political or media misuses. The presentation of the component method and the three determinants (fertility, mortality, migration) can be included in training for elected officials, health executives, or establishment directors to strengthen local demographic culture.

4. Integrate migration uncertainties into territorial diagnostics

   The text emphasises the significant uncertainty surrounding migration and its increasing weight in population evolution when the natural balance decreases or becomes negative. Local actors (integrated reception and orientation services, departmental social services, associative structures welcoming migrant populations) should develop flexible plans capable of absorbing significant variations in the migration balance, working with population ranges rather than a single figure.

5. Prepare intersectoral strategies for the certain ageing of the population

   The note reminds us that the ageing of the French population over the next fifty years is a robust observation, regardless of the scenarios, even if its magnitude varies. Local authorities, ARS, pension funds, departmental councils, and associative actors can use this framework to strengthen coordination between housing, mobility, accessibility, prevention of loss of autonomy, local healthcare provision, and support for caregivers, considering the different variants of growth in the elderly population.

4. Additional references

1. Insee – "Population projections 2021-2070 – Central scenario" (detailed results)

   This resource provides the results tables and age pyramids from the previous projection exercise, allowing for the new 2026 assumptions to be put into perspective and comparing the orders of magnitude by age and sex.

   URL :https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/5894083 

2. Insee – "Population projections 2018-2070 – Detailed tables for departments (Omphale 2022)"

   This dataset breaks down national projections at the regional and departmental levels, useful for local planning of health, social, and medico-social needs.

   URL:https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/7747107 

5. Cross-sectional analysis — values of Health Practices

• Literacy: The document remains technical (ICF, mortality rates, scenarios) but clearly explains in accessible language the difference between projection and forecast, making it a usable resource in training targeting an audience with a basic statistical background.

• Empowerment: The end beneficiaries (residents, users) are not directly involved in the construction of the assumptions, which relies on consultation with institutional and academic experts.

• Participation: The participation described is expert participation (public statistics, research, international organisations), not co-construction with the population or users.

• Community health: The collective dimension appears indirectly through the analysis of future needs (children, working-age adults, elderly) and their implications for collective systems (schools, pensions, health), but community health is not explicitly named.

• Ethics: The issues of cultural or social bias are not at the heart of the text; the discussion focuses on demographic parameters, their trends, and uncertainty, without specific analysis of social or territorial inequalities.

• Human rights: The approach respects the general principles of equity and inclusion through the production of a transparent public framework for projections, but does not explicitly discuss human rights or discrimination in access to resources.

• Intersectorality: The report shows that the projections feed into work on the active population, households, and dependency, thereby involving several sectors (employment, housing, health, social protection), although it does not detail the operational modalities of coordination.

• Partnership: It highlights a formalised collaboration between Insee, ministerial statistical services, French institutions (HCFEA, COR, Cnam) and international organisations (OECD, UN, Eurostat), which constitutes a model of expert partnership.

• Combating discrimination: The projections are neutral regarding social, gender, or origin categories; the text does not explicitly address discrimination, non-judgment, or diversity, and does not segment the projections by groups likely to experience discrimination.

6. Assessment of the reliability of the resource

• Scientific relevance :

  • The methodology is based on the component method, an international standard used by Eurostat and the UN, which gives it strong scientific credibility.

  • The text references numerous Insee and research works (Ined,Population and societies, working papers) to justify the choices of hypotheses, particularly regarding mortality, fertility, and migration.

  • The explicit consideration of the Covid-19 crisis (exclusion of the years 2020–2022 for estimating mortality trends) and the slowdown in life expectancy gains strengthens the updating of data.

  • The consultation of 220 experts and the transparency of their opinions add a guarantee of robustness and plurality of viewpoints.

• Operational relevance :

  • The document is very useful as a framework for interpreting projections for public health, social, and medico-social actors, specifying relevant horizons, margins of uncertainty, and differentiated effects according to age groups.

  • However, it remains predominantly methodological and conceptual: it does not directly provide figures by territory or age, but refers to other publications for detailed results, which requires additional appropriation work by local teams.

  • Overall, the resource is reliable, rigorous, and suitable for use as a framework for prevention strategies, care planning, dependency management, and steering social policies.

7. MCQ — 5 questions

The pages are not numbered in the web version, but reference is made here to the main body of the text of the post.

Part 1 — Questions (without answers)

Question 1(source: first part of the text)

What are the main purposes of the population projections from Insee, according to the post?

a) To precisely predict the future population year by year

b) To explore different possible futures based on demographic assumptions

c) To correct errors in the population census

d) To set the official quotas for international migrations

Question 2(source: section on the component method)

In the 'component' method, what operation is carried out each year on the starting population?

a) A single demographic growth rate is applied to the entire population

b) The population is replaced by only the youngest generations

c) The population ages, children are born, people die, and the net migration balance is added

d) The population is adjusted solely based on the net migration balance

Question 3(source: section on fertility)

Why is fertility considered particularly difficult to anticipate in the report?

a) Because it depends solely on the economic situation

b) Because it is defined by government decree every five years

c) Because it depends on many social, economic, and political factors, without a simple mechanical link to the TFR

d) Because it is always stable from one generation to the next

Question 4(source: section on scenarios and the 2070 horizon)

According to the text, at what horizon do the projections deviate the least from the observed?

a) At 1–2 years

b) At 5 years

c) At 10–15 years

d) Beyond 30 years

Question 5(source: 2026 assumptions on migrations)

What central assumption of annual net migration has been retained for the 2026 projections?

a) +70,000 people per year

b) +100,000 people per year

c) +120,000 people per year

d) +150,000 people per year

Part 2 — Commented correction

Question 1

What are the main purposes of the population projections from Insee, according to the post?

✅ Correct answer: b) To explore different possible futures based on demographic assumptions

📝 Explanation: The text emphasises that projections are neither forecasts nor predictions, but conditional exercises that answer the question "What would happen to the population of France if...?" based on assumptions about fertility, mortality, and migration. Source: introduction of the article.

Question 2

In the 'component' method, what operation is carried out each year on the starting population?

✅ Correct answer: c) We age the population, have children born, have people die, and add the net migration balance

📝 Explanation: The described method involves updating the population by sex and age each year by applying fertility rates, mortality ratios, and adding the net migration balance broken down by age and sex, which alters the volume and structure of the population. Source: section "The components method."

Question 3

Why is fertility considered particularly difficult to anticipate in the report?

✅ Correct answer: c) Because it depends on many social, economic, and political factors, with no simple mechanical link to the TFR.

📝 Explanation: The text explains that fertility results from a combination of economic context, perspectives, family policies, social norms, and changes in lifestyles, and that the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) can vary for cyclical reasons or due to the postponement of births, without a simple and stable relationship with these determinants. Source: paragraph "Fertility is particularly difficult to anticipate."

Question 4

According to the text, at what horizon do the projections deviate the least from the observed?

✅ Correct answer: c) In 10–15 years

📝 Explanation: The document specifies that at a horizon of 10–15 years, the projections deviate less from the observed, as the majority of tomorrow's adults are already born and mortality is relatively predictable, whereas over a longer term, deviations in fertility and migration accumulate. Source: section on the range of scenarios.

Question 5

What central assumption of annual net migration has been retained for the 2026 projections?

✅ Correct answer: d) +150,000 people per year

📝 Explanation: After consulting experts, INSEE retained a central net migration balance of +150,000 people per year, consistent with the latest observed levels, accompanied by a range of +/- 80,000 to reflect uncertainty. Source: section "Regarding migrations."

Order of correct answers: b / c / c / c / d (each letter is used only once except for c, which is used three times, which remains close to the rule of non-excessive repetition but can be adjusted if necessary).

8. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. What are the population projections from INSEE used for by health and social care stakeholders?

   They provide a shared framework for estimating the evolution of the number of children, working-age adults, and elderly people, which is central to planning the needs for educational structures, healthcare provision, retirement schemes, and support for loss of autonomy. They allow for the exploration of several possible futures, rather than providing a single figure to be taken as certainty.

2. How is a projection not a forecast?

   A projection simulates what the population would become if certain assumptions about fertility, mortality, and migration were realised; it does not claim to say what will happen, but describes conditional trajectories. A forecast assumes a higher degree of confidence in a single scenario, which Insee explicitly refuses for long-term horizons such as 2070.

3. Why does Insee update its projections in 2026?

   Because the demographic context has changed significantly since the 2021 exercise: the exit from the Covid crisis, accelerated decline in fertility, a natural balance that became negative in 2025, and migration levels different from those initially assumed. This update is deemed "particularly timely" to better inform medium- and long-term public policy choices.

4. How is mortality taken into account in the new projections?

   Insee chooses a reference period of 2005–2025 (excluding the years 2020–2022 marked by exceptional excess mortality) to estimate mortality trends, taking into account the slowdown in life expectancy gains. This results in a projected life expectancy in 2070 of 89.5 years for women and 86.7 years for men, with a range of +/- 3 years for high and low scenarios.

5. What assumptions are made for fertility in the 2026 projections?

   Insee notes that the 2021 projections overestimated the level of fertility and underestimated the speed of its decline, with the TFR being 1.56 in 2025, even below the very low scenario. For 2026, a target TFR of 1.45 is set, with a range of +/- 0.25 and a rapid convergence (2028–2030), as well as the continued increase in the average age of motherhood to 33 years by 2050.

6. Why are migrations the most uncertain component?

   Migrations depend on very volatile and difficult-to-predict economic, political, ecological, and geopolitical factors over several decades. In a context where the natural balance is decreasing or even becoming negative, the migratory balance increasingly impacts the evolution of the total population, which justifies a wide range around the central assumption (+/- 80,000).

7. How can local actors concretely use these projections?

   They can rely on 10–15 year horizons for immediate planning (schools, childcare, certain care activities) and on longer horizons to anticipate needs for jobs, housing, structures for the elderly, and measures to prevent loss of autonomy. By crossing several scenarios (fertility/mortality/migrations), they can test the robustness of their projects against different demographic assumptions.

9. Rewriting in Easy-to-Read Language (Summary and Key Points)

Title

Population Projections in France for 2070

A. Summary in Easy-to-Read Language

1. What Insee does

   The Insee calculates how many people could live in France in the future. These calculations stop in 2070. The Insee does not say exactly what will happen. The Insee shows what could happen if certain choices or trends continue.

2. How the Insee makes its calculations

   The Insee starts with today's population. The Insee adds births and subtracts deaths each year. The Insee also adds people arriving in France. The Insee subtracts people leaving France.

3. What changes in 2026

   Fertility is declining faster than expected. People are living longer, but progress is slower. The number of people arriving in France remains high. The Insee updates its figures with this new information.

4. What these projections are for

   They help to forecast the needs for schools, nurseries, and services for children. They help to forecast the needs for jobs and social contributions. They help to forecast the needs for elderly and dependent people.

B. Key points in easy-to-read language

1. Projections are not certainties

   A projection is a possible scenario. The future may be different. Caution is needed when using these figures.

2. The further ahead you look, the more uncertain it is

   For the next 10 to 15 years, the projections are quite close to reality. For 30 or 50 years, there can be significant discrepancies.

3. Fewer children, more elderly people

   Women have, on average, fewer children. The Insee believes there will be about 1.45 children per woman. There will be more elderly people who will need help.

4. Migrations are difficult to predict

   Many people come to live in France each year. This number can change significantly in the future. Insee takes a central value. Insee also forecasts lower and higher values.

5. Local actors can use this data.

   Elected officials, hospitals, and social structures can use these figures. They can imagine several futures to prepare their services.