The Automobile and Road Mobility — Fully Committing to Decarbonisation — Interim Report, June 2026

📜🔗LINK to the source

🎥 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZZnI3bphuQ

1. ANALYTICAL SUMMARY

Context and issues — An industry under dual carbon and industrial constraints

Transport remains the largest emitter of greenhouse gases in France (124.9 MtCO2e in 2024, accounting for 34% of national emissions), with private cars representing more than half (p.22). The French automotive sector is simultaneously undergoing a severe industrial contraction (-33% of manufacturing jobs in 13 years) and increased Chinese competition in electric vehicles (p.7, 98). The report also documents the economic weight of cars for households and the territorial inequalities in access to charging infrastructure.

Operational contributions — A quantified state of play and identified decarbonisation levers

The document provides a detailed inventory of decarbonisation levers (carpooling, efficient electric vehicles, retrofitting, alternative fuels) with orders of magnitude for carbon impact and cost, as well as four prospective scenarios for 2050 (p.168-183). However, this is an explicitly incomplete interim report: the authors themselves specify that "the figures presented are therefore not our final results" (p.179), with the final report expected in early 2027.

2. KEY POINTS OF THE DOCUMENT

1. Transport is the largest source of GHG emissions in France with 124.9 MtCO2e in 2024 (34% of the national total), with private cars alone accounting for 53% of emissions in the transport sector (p.22-23).
2. Mobility represents 13.5% of household budgets in 2024 (with cars accounting for 80%, or 10.9% of the total budget), a proportion that is slightly declining but very unevenly distributed according to income — households in the last decile purchase nearly 30% of new vehicles compared to 4% for the first decile (p.96).
3. Access to electric charging infrastructure remains unequal across the territory: 210 charging points for 100,000 inhabitants in urban areas compared to 160 in rural areas, with the issue of "territorial equity" identified as "a major point of concern" by the authors (p.39-40).
4. Automotive industrial employment is in structural contraction: 139,000 jobs lost in 13 years (-33% between 2010 and 2023), with an additional loss estimated at 40,000 jobs by 2035 according to the Directorate General for Enterprises, partially offset by jobs in batteries (p.7, 95).
5. Carpooling is identified as a lever for rapid and accessible decarbonisation: even a modest increase in the average occupancy rate (from 1.43 to 1.51 passengers/vehicle) would reduce emissions by 3.5 Mt of CO2 by 2030, with a potential service area extended to 43 million inhabitants in low-density areas through a system combining regional trains, express buses, and express carpooling (p.108-109).

3. ACTION TRACKS FOR LOCAL ACTORS

1. Mobilise territorial fracture data on electric charging (p.39-40) and on the cost of mobility (p.96) to objectify, in local health diagnostics (local health contracts, health-city workshops), the link between territorial isolation and renunciation of care or employment.
2. Get closer to the project leaders of territorial carpooling and express lines (Grenoble example cited p.109) to articulate these systems with integration and social support pathways towards employment and care.
3. Integrate the real cost of owning a vehicle (p.97) into the budgetary support offered to vulnerable groups, in addition to the tools already used by social and family economy advisors.
4. Monitor the progress of the "Great Health Consultation" from the Shift Project, addressed to doctors, nurses, and pharmacists on the link between healthcare practice, energy, and climate (p.5) — a direct entry point for health professionals wishing to contribute to future work.
5. Anticipate with local employment and training actors the impacts of the transition on jobs in the downstream automotive sector (maintenance, repair, distribution), particularly in areas hosting industrial sites undergoing conversion (p.164, 185) — an unmet need identified by the authors themselves as a project to be undertaken for the final report.

4. ADDITIONAL REFERENCES

• Cerema/ADEME, "Rural and peri-urban territories: keys to successfully implementing your mobility project" (2024-2025) — additional methodological guide for local authorities, with the key data of 15 million people in a situation of mobility insecurity in France: https://www.cerema.fr/fr/actualites/territoires-ruraux-peri-urbains-cles-reussir-son-projet
• Mob'In Network / Region, "Inclusive and Solidarity Mobility Guide" (December 2024) — operational approach focused on supporting vulnerable groups towards mobility autonomy, complementary to the industrial approach of the Shift Project report: https://cite-ressources.org/sites/default/files/ressources/2024-12/Guide%20mobilite%CC%81%20inclusive%20et%20solidaire%20de%CC%81c2024-3.pdf%20version%20de%CC%81finitive.pdf
• European Committee of the Regions, conference "Fighting Mobility Poverty Across the EU" (March 2025, with UITP) — European insight into the links between transport poverty and access to healthcare, education, and employment: https://cor.europa.eu/fr/actualites/les-elus-locaux-et-regionaux-exhortent-lue-intensifier-la-lutte-contre-la-precarite-en-matiere-de

5. FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS (FAQ)

1. Is the report a final document? No. It is an "interim milestone" explicitly described as "imperfect, incomplete, and evolving", with a final report announced for early 2027 (p.1).
2. What is the share of individual cars in transport sector emissions? 53% of domestic transport emissions, or 66.5 MtCO2e in 2024 (p.23).
3. What is the weight of mobility in household budgets, and is it homogeneous? 13.5% of the budget on average, but with significant disparities according to income: affluent households purchase proportionally more new vehicles (cheaper to use) than modest households who predominantly buy used ones (p.96).
4. Are there territorial inequalities in access to electric charging? Yes, with 210 points per 100,000 inhabitants in urban areas compared to 160 in rural areas; the authors highlight that the question of "who has access to charging, where, and at what price" is at least as important as the overall volumes deployed (p.39-40).
5. What is the impact of carpooling on emissions? An increase of 0.08 additional passengers on average per vehicle would reduce vehicle-kilometres by 19 billion and emissions by 3.5 Mt of CO2 by 2030 (p.108-109).
6. What are the expected impacts on employment in the sector? Manufacturing employment has already fallen by 139,000 jobs in 13 years (-33%), and the DGE anticipates up to 40,000 additional jobs threatened by 2035, partially offset by jobs related to batteries and hydrogen (p.7, 95).
7. Does the report propose scenarios for 2050? Yes, four contrasting scenarios ("Donut-flavoured Fork in the Road", "Green Industry Europe for 2050", "French AI for sure", "The Climate Change takes it all"), differentiated by their level of sobriety, technological content, and climate anticipation — but the numerical results presented remain provisional (p.168-183).

6. REWRITING IN PLAIN LANGUAGE

The car and the climate: a report that takes stock

What the report says

The Shift Project is a group of climate experts.

It has written a report on cars in France.

This report is not finished.

The final version will be released in 2027.

Cars pollute a lot

Transport is the leading cause of CO2 pollution in France.

The individual car pollutes the most.

It accounts for more than half of this pollution.

The car is expensive for families

Mobility is expensive for French families.

It represents 1 euro out of 7 spent on average.

Poor families mainly buy second-hand cars.

Wealthy families buy more new cars.

Charging your electric car is not easy everywhere.

There are fewer charging points in the countryside than in the city.

This is a problem for equality between regions.

Carpooling can help.

Sharing a car reduces pollution.

It is a quick solution to implement.

It costs little money.

Work in the automotive industry is changing.

There are fewer jobs in car manufacturing than before.

Some jobs will still disappear.

Other jobs will emerge, in batteries for example.

7. CROSS-ANALYSIS — VALUES OF HEALTH PRACTICES

• Literacy: the document is technical and dense (numerical data, industrial jargon); no mediation or popularisation tools are offered for non-expert audiences.
• Empowerment: absent in its classic form; the report does mention a desire to "co-construct pathways with those who will have to implement them" through sectoral consultations (p.4).
• Participation: the document describes a real co-construction mechanism — the Great Consultation of Farmers (7,800 contributions), that of Mayors (3,000 elected officials) and the ongoing Great Health Consultation (p.4-5) — but this mechanism does not directly concern vulnerable audiences facing mobility.
• Community health: the collective dimension is addressed from a territorial perspective (mobility basins, intercommunalities) but never from a health or community perspective.
• Ethics : social biases related to unequal access to new vehicles and charging are identified and quantified (p.39-40, p.96), without any corrective recommendations at this intermediate stage.
• Human rights : the issue of territorial equity in access to mobility is named as a "major point of attention" (p.40), without development in terms of fundamental rights.
• Intersectorality : the report explicitly calls for partnerships between economic actors, public authorities, and employment-training sectors, with a dedicated project announced for the second semester (p.185).
• Partnership : no formalised collaboration model is presented in this intermediate version; partnerships remain in the state of ongoing consultations.
• Combating discrimination : not addressed; the document does not mention discrimination in the social sense of the term, only economic and territorial inequalities in access to mobility.

8. EVALUATION OF THE RELIABILITY OF THE RESOURCE

Scientific relevance : the mobilised data comes from solid and recent primary sources (INSEE, CITEPA/Secten 2025, SDES, ADEME, Avere-France, Court of Auditors, Senate). The scenario modelling methodology is explicit but the authors themselves indicate, several times, that the results presented are provisional and intended to illustrate an approach rather than to be used as is (p.179). This is not a peer-reviewed academic document, but a think tank report in a phase of open collaborative review.

Operational relevance : low direct usability for a health/social field practitioner — the document does not offer any tools, frameworks or intervention support. Its value for this audience lies mainly in the quantifiable data that can be mobilised to objectify territorial diagnoses (precarity, access to care related to mobility).

🔍➕ For more information, see the articles referenced by "Health Practices" on the theme of health and work ➡️🔗